A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
